It looks like there is a reversal forming on the NZD/USD pair. The NZD has been on a tear lately strengthened by an increase in export prices, most notably dairy prices. Recent data from the Global Dairy Trade shows that growth may be slowing down. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand said in their most recent statement that they favor a weaker NZD. Looking at the NZD technicals, there is a bearish divergence on the stochastics which is a strong sign of a reversal.
NZD Futures. Higher highs in price does not correlate with the stochastic indicator
Recent CFTC Data shows that there is extreme positioning on the long side by speculators on the NZD. Extreme positioning also sets up a reversal. If everyone is long, then sooner or later people have to exit their position.
COT Trader Report
Blue: Large Speculators
Red: Commercial
NZD positioning from prior week is over 1000%
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