Daily Macro Outlook 6/29

Good Morning,

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Highlights from Overnight Session

• U. K. unsecured borrowing continued to grow rapidly in May, official data showed Thursday, suggesting British consumers increasingly rely on credit cards, personal loans and overdrafts to support spending amid accelerating inflation and tepid wage growth.
• The FT reports the US dollar index (DXY) has hit its lowest level since October, giving up its entire post-election rally, as investors reassess the outlook for global monetary policy.
• Draghi intended to signal tolerance to inflation: CNBC on Wednesday said central bank sources told Reuters that President Draghi intended to signal tolerance for a period of weaker inflation, not an imminent policy tightening in his Tuesday speech. The sources also said that financial markets failed to take note of caveats in Draghi's speech that were intended to prepare markets for a decision on stimulus later this year without making a firm commitment.
• New Zealand: June ANZ Business Confidence +24.8 vs +14.9 in May

Information from FactSet

Instrument	Outlook
USD	Neutral
JPY	Bearish
EUR	Bullish
AUD	Bullish
GBP	Bullish
CAD	Bearish
CHF	Neutral
MXP	Bearish
NZD	Bearish
GOLD	Bearish
OIL	Neutral
10 Y BOND	Bearish
S&P	Neutral

Views based on analysis of the futures market.

Quick Technical Analysis

Gold

• As rates start going up globally, gold has been under a lot of pressure
• Gold is being supported by the 200 DMA
• Close below 200 DMA will see gold try to test 1213 level

Crude Oil

• Yesterday’s EIA report showed a drawdown in the gasoline stocks
• Crude Oil has reached crucial level in $45 range
• A close above this level could see crude oil test its 50 DMA at $47
• Failure to hold this level could result in another leg downward

10 Y Bond Futures

• US Bonds are following the rest of the globe with rising rates (meaning price goes down)
• 10 Y hasnt crossed below its 50 DMA since March
• It has broken through a major retracement line that has been holding since early May
• Expect more downside pressure

USD/CAD

• Currency pair seems to be forming bottom
• Oil recovery has strengthened currency along with expected rate hikes
• Currency Pair at major support has not closed below $1.30 level since September 2016. Expecting the support to cause bounce

This report was prepared by

Nicholas Azinge III

CEO, Azinge Capital

nicholas.azinge@azingecapital.com

DISCLAIMER: THIS IS JUST COMMENTARY AND SHOULD NOT BE TAKEN AS INVESTMENT ADVICE OR RECOMMENDATIONS.